Yellow card betting strategy in football: important rules and basic principles
Yellow card betting can be predicted by following the basic principles. Long-term strategy of playing on "mustard plasters" can bring profit. Learn the distance betting rules for yellow cards to increase your chances of earning on this market.
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What are yellow cards in football and why they are given
A yellow card in football is a warning for gross violations of the rules. The word "warning" means that the next will lead to removal from the field.
"Mustard plasters" are issued for:
- gross violations that can lead to injury to an opponent: tackle from behind, hit with a straight leg, extended elbows in a jump, and others;
- unsportsmanlike behavior: provocations of opponents, conversations with the referee, gestures to the fans, and so on;
- time lingering: the ball is not injected from the standard for a long time, trauma is simulated;
- simulations: falling in the absence of contact from a player of the other team;
- interruption of a dangerous attack by another team;
- deliberate hand play.
Important: the presentation of a warning is most often an individual choice of an arbiter. Different judges may make different decisions for the same violation.
What types of bets on yellow cards do bookmakers offer?
Bookmakers offer a wide range of bets on yellow cards:
- victory of one of the teams or a draw;
- odds on the number of "mustard plasters";
- general and individual totals;
- whether individual players will receive warnings;
- options for bets by time: the whole match, by halves, by separate time intervals, for example, from the first to the tenth minute;
- the first or last warning in the game: which of the teams will be presented, in what period of time, and so on.
Often the bookmaker offers combined bets in which yellow cards are taken into account. For example, "will the first goal be scored before the first LCD."
Special rules for betting on LCD at bookmakers
When planning to bet on yellow cards in a bookmaker, study the special rules for this market:
- the second yellow player is not counted, but goes to the red ones;
- “mustard plasters” for substituted players and coaches are not taken into account;
- the card presented during the half-time goes to the statistics of the second half;
- the warnings shown after the final whistle are not taken into account.
In the FONBET bookmaker's office, the specifics of betting on yellow cards can be found in paragraph 6.2 of the rules:
Strategy for betting on yellow cards in football
Variations of the strategy of betting on "mustard plasters" may be different, but for playing at a distance, we recommend choosing the "total TB in the match" market. In doing so, adhere to the following principles.
- Give preference to markets for bets on total more. Based on statistics, select the teams that, on average, receive no more than one alert. But in any match, a conflict situation may arise, pulling numerous "mustard plasters" behind it. If the clubs consistently play roughly, receiving 3-5 cards in a match, then bet on the total of yellow cards "More".
- Find a list of 15-20 "favorite clubs" based on statistics. Their average number of yellow cards in a match must be at least four.
- Find the matches of "nemesis" in the line. Each championship has such pairs, for example, Roma - Lazio in Italy, Partizan - Crvena Zvezda in Serbia, Dynamo - Shakhtar in Ukraine. In meetings between such rivals, experts have at least 6-7 "mustard plasters".
- Watch selected matches to make a profitable bet in live. If in a prematch on TB 4.5 the coefficient is 1.50, then by the 30th minute it will rise to 1.80-2.00 in the absence of warnings.
Taking into account the listed principles, you can find 15-25 suitable events per week. This will make it possible to place bets on yellow cards according to strategy, evaluating the results over a distance: a month, half or a whole season.
Read about other football betting strategies here: Football betting strategies: 10 good betting schemes for the most popular sport
What factors to consider when analyzing and choosing matches
When assessing the likelihood of a bet on the total of yellows, take into account the following criteria.
- Arbitrator statistics. Judging style is a basic factor in judging such a bet. Referees react differently to gross violations. Choose matches played by referees that display a minimum of six cautions per game.
- The attacking tactics of the favorite team. If fast and technical football is preferred when building attacks, then opponents will often blatantly break the rules and receive mustard plasters.
- Statistics of the warnings that the defensive midfielders of both teams receive regularly. Players in this position most often earn LCD. They interrupt attacks at a safe distance from their own gates. Defenders are forced to play more accurately, as they violate near the penalty area or within it.
- Account in the second half. If the clear favorite does not win by the 60th minute of the meeting, bet on TB yellow cards for a coefficient of about 2.00. The outsider will often break under the pressure of a strong opponent. On the part of the weak team, time delays will begin, and for this reason, warnings are also given. Taking this factor into account, take TB live.
- Individual player statistics. Each team has noteworthy ruffians. Their presence in the starting line-up increases the chance of betting on total more than yellow cards.
Financial management rules
Today, all bookmakers accept bets on the quantitative indicators of yellow cards in the match. At the same time, bookmakers provide an average margin for this popular market and do not set strict limits. Therefore, you can bet large amounts. When following the distance betting strategy on yellow cards in football, adhere to the principles of financial management:
- choose a restrictive betting strategy: flat, Kelly's principle and others;
- put no more than 1-3% of the total bank on one event: 5% per bet - high risk at a distance;
- select coefficients at the level of 1.80-2.20;
- calculate your ROI once a week: if the minus is more than 15%, reconsider the principles by which you choose betting options;
- ignore short-term losses if the strategy has been tested and made good profits within six to seven months.
Read more about bankroll management in sports betting here: Bankroll Management in Sports Betting: Banking Rules and Seven Financial Strategies
The yellow card strategy in football requires discipline in both event selection and bank management. If you are willing to follow a rigorous approach and clear principles at a distance, a system of betting on TB yellow cards can be profitable.
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