What is sports betting loading: how cash flow affects the odds in the line
Projections help make money out of thin air: you bet on the same outcome as others, but with a higher odds. You need to know when to bet a few days before the match, and in what cases, 5-10 minutes before the start of the game. In this article, we will analyze what a load is, its types, the effect on the odds, and four betting strategies.
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What are betting loads
Loss in bets is a decrease in the coefficient for one of the outcomes due to the large number of bets on this choice.
Due to the overload, bookmakers reduce the odds by one outcome and raise them by the opposite.
For example, in the football match “Atalanta” - “Roma” bookmakers set odds of 1.90 for total goals over 3.5 and 1.85 for total goals under 3.5.
Due to the large number of bets on the horse outcome, the bookmakers have adjusted the line: 1.65 for TB 3.5 and 2.20 for TM 3.5
The main types of loads for sporting events
- Organized: Bets due to leaked match-fixing information or predicted by a famous capper. For example, in the hockey match "Traktor" - "Neftekhimik" the expert suggests taking the total pucks over 4.5, and the players follow his advice.
- Unorganized: Betting on a clear favorite. Let's imagine that in a tennis match Roger Federer - Alexander Bublik the players load onto the Swiss. Therefore, the bookmaker reduces the odds for the favorite to win.
- Geoprocess: bets based on fan preferences. For example, in a football match Russia - Spain, most Russians are betting on the hosts, regardless of the odds.
Odds changes before a football match
Please note that the coefficients change not only due to the load. There are other reasons as well:
- The coach retained one or more key players.
- The media reported additional information: the match without spectators, the meeting was moved to another stadium, and so on.
- A player from one of the teams will miss the match due to injury or disqualification.
Read about how to bet on football based on strategies here: How to Learn Football Betting: Good Strategies and Tips for Newbies
Prematch Loads Betting Strategies
Betting on total over 2.5 in football
Bet on total goals over 2.5 immediately after the appearance of the bookmaker's line according to the criteria:
- Both teams score on average over 1.5 goals per match.
- Bookmakers give odds less than 3.00 for each team to win.
Most players will load TB 2.5, and the odds on this outcome before the match will be lower.
Imagine the bookmakers gave 1.70 on 2.5 TB in a Manchester City v Real Madrid match. Before the start of the meeting, the coefficient for TB 2.5 dropped to 1.50.
At a rate of 10,000 rubles immediately after the line was released, the potential payout was 17,000 rubles: 10,000 x 1.70. And before the match - 15,000 rubles: 10,000 x 1.50.
Total under 2.5 bets in football
Bet on total goals under 2.5 5-10 minutes before the start of the match in the following cases:
- One of the teams is satisfied with a draw.
- Bookmakers give odds less than 2.00 for the victory of one of the teams.
Due to the load on TB 2.5, you will bet on TM 2.5 with a higher coefficient.
Let's imagine that the bookmakers gave 2.20 on TM 2.5 in the PSG - Borussia D match. Before the start of the match, the coefficient on TM 2.5 increased to 2.60.
With a bet of 5000 rubles immediately after the line was released, the potential payout was 11,000 rubles: 5000 x 2.20. And before the meeting - 13,000 rubles: 5,000 x 2.60.
Read more about total betting here: The value of total in bets: what is Over and Under, examples of calculation in football and other sports
Betting Against Loads in Football
Betting on the outsider
In a meeting between a clear favorite and a clear outsider due to a load, the bookmaker will reduce the odds for the favorite. Bet an outsider with a handicap for odds of about 1.70-1.95.
Let's imagine that in a match between Bayern and Schalke, the odds for guests with a handicap (2.5) increased from 1.60 to 1.90. With a bet of 1,000 rubles, the potential payout is 1,900 rubles: 1,000 x 1.90. Favorite
If the home favorite accepts an outsider and sets up a second line-up, the players can load the away win. Bet on the favorite to win or draw, that is, on 1X for odds of 1.50 or more.
For example, in the Liverpool v Everton match, the 1X home odds increased from 1.15 to 1.55. With a bet of 1,000 rubles, the potential payout is 1,550 rubles: 1,000 x 1.55.
When betting at bookmakers, use the loads to your advantage. If you are sure that the majority will bet on the favorite to win, it is more profitable to bet on the reverse outcome of the match 5-10 minutes before the start of the meeting.
To make a profit, you must assess the odds correctly. Forecasts will help you play at high odds.