Valuable bets scare the bookmakers. What is value, how to find it and calculation examples
Value bets can be profitable consistently, which is why bookmakers are afraid of them. In this article, we will analyze what value bets are and how to find them, as well as consider the game of surebets and the rules for distributing the pot.
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What are value bets
Value bets (value) - bets on outcomes underestimated by the bookmaker. That is, bets where the probability of a particular outcome is higher than the bookmaker believes.
The bet is valuable if:
K x P> 1 , where K is the coefficient, P is your estimate of the probability.
Determine the percentage of possible profit using the formula :
(K x P - 1) x 100 .
For example, the bookmaker rated Zenit's victory in a football match with Dynamo with a coefficient of 1.60, and in your opinion, the home's success rate is 70%.
We estimate the rate:
1.60 x 0.7 = 1.12> 1, the rate is valuable.
We calculate the percentage of profit:
(1.60 x 0.7 - 1) x 100 = 12%
If you bet with odds of 1.60 on the outcomes with a 70% probability of passing, you will receive 12% of the profit on the distance, subject to the correct estimate.
Example of a value bet
For example, in a tennis match Novak Djokovic - Rafael Nadal, bookmakers give odds of 1.50 for Djokovic's victory and 2.60 for Nadal's success.
You did a detailed analysis of the match and decided that the percentage probability of a victory for Djokovic is 76%.
We estimate the rate:
1.50 x 0.76 = 1.14> 1, the rate is valuable.
Determine the possible profit at a distance using the formula :
N x V x (K x P - 1) , where N is the number of bets, P is your estimate of the probability, K is the coefficient, V is the amount of the bet.
If you have correctly estimated the odds and make 50 similar bets for the amount of 1000 rubles, then the profit will be 7000 rubles: 50 x 1000 x (1.50 x 0.76 - 1).
How to find a value rate
Analyze events yourself or use the scanner to find surebets or value bets.
Forks game
A surebet is an opportunity to get a guaranteed profit by placing bets on different outcomes of the same event.
Fork shoulders are the outcomes of a single market that form a surebet.
The surebets scanner is a program for searching for overweight bets that analyzes the odds of the bookmakers in real time.
Find the plug yourself using the formula:
Sp = 1 / K1 + 1 / K2 +… + 1 / Kn , where Sp is the sum of probabilities, n is the number of outcomes in one market, K1, K2, ..., Kn are the odds for the outcomes of one market.
If Sp <1, then you have found a fork.
Distribute the pot to the surebet according to the formula:
S = 1 / K / Sp x B , where S is the amount of the bet on the arm of the surebet, Sp is the sum of probabilities, B is the size of the pot allocated for the entire surebet.
For example, for the match Atletico Madrid - Liverpool in different bookmakers you can bet at 3.35 odds for the home win, 3.49 for the draw and 2.55 for the away win.
We check the odds for the presence of a surebet:
1 / 3.35 + 1 / 3.49 + 1 / 2.55 = 0.978 <1, we have a fork.
We calculate the amount of bets on each arm of the surebet with a pot size of 10,000 rubles:
- P1 = 1 / 3.35 / 0.978 x 10,000 = 3052 rubles.
- X = 1 / 3.49 / 0.978 x 10,000 = 2930 rubles.
- P2 = 1 / 2.55 / 0.978 x 10,000 = 4010 rubles.
The guaranteed profit will be 224 rubles:
- The victory of Atletico Madrid will bring 10,224 rubles: 3,052 x 3.35.
- In case of a tie, the payout will be 10,226 rubles: 2,930 x 3.49.
- If Liverpool succeeds, you will receive 10,226 rubles: 4010 x 2.55.
How much to bet on a value bet
Determine the amount of the value bet using the formula :
((K x P - 1) / (K - 1)) x R x B , where K is the odds, P is your estimate of the probability, B is the pot size, R is the percentage of successful bets.
If you have played 35 out of 100 bets, then R = 0.35. The Championship recommends to beginners to use R = 0.25.
Let's go back to the tennis match Novak Djokovic - Rafael Nadal. We calculate the bet amount with a pot size of 10,000 rubles and R = 0.25:
((1.50 x 0.76 - 1) / (1.50 - 1)) x 0.25 x 10,000 = 700 rubles.
Pros and cons of value bets
Advantage - high chances of making a profit with high-quality analysis and correct distribution of bet amounts.
The disadvantage is that it is impossible to accurately assess the probability of a bet passing.
Value bets can be profitable over a distance in the event of a correct assessment of a particular outcome. When betting on value, analyze all the available information and follow the rules for distributing the bank. For guaranteed profit, play with surebets.
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