The mathematics of betting on football and other sports: how to beat the bookmaker using algorithms
Betting mathematics increases your chances of success, but does not guarantee a profit. In this article, we'll take a look at margins, odds, and mathematical sports betting strategies. And also we will answer the main question: how to beat the bookmaker.
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Bookmaker margin and odds
The margin is the commission that the bookmaker puts into the odds.
The coefficient is the probability of an event taking into account the bookmaker's margin. The coefficient is needed for calculating sports bets.
Calculate the possible payout of the bet using the formula:
(stake amount) X (odds).
For example, in a football match between Liverpool and Manchester United, the home win coefficient is 1.90, and the stake is 1,000 rubles. If Liverpool succeeds, the payout will be 1900 rubles: 1000 X 1.90.
The bookmaker may incur losses based on the results of one match, but due to the margin, the bookmakers are in the black over the distance.
Calculate the margin using the formula:
(1 / K1 + 1 / K2 + ... + 1 / Kn - 1) X 100, where n is the number of choices in one market, and K1, K2,…, Kn are the coefficients for each choice.
For example, in a hockey match Russia - Canada, the bookmaker set the following odds on the result of regular time:
- Russia's victory in 3.70.
- Draw for 4.30.
- Canada's win at 1.80.
We calculate the margin:
(1 / 3.70 + 1 / 4.30 + 1 / 1.80 - 1) X 100 = 5.84%.
Mathematical sports betting strategies
Mathematical strategy in betting is the rules for managing the game bank, formulated by the players of the bookmaker's offices.
Use one or more mathematical betting strategies. Let's consider three of them:
1. Martingale strategy.
Martingale strategy is a strategy of doubling the bet amount after each next loss. You need to bet on odds of 2.00.
The first run will override previous failures and bring a profit equal to the amount of the first bet. This strategy is also called dogon.
Place your first bet no more than 1-2% of the bank.
Let's imagine that your bank is 10,000 rubles, the first bet is 100 rubles, and the odds are always 2.00. Consider a table of possible outcomes:
|Bet amount||Result||Bank size|
2. Ladder strategy
A ladder is a strategy in which the size of each next bet, if entered, is equal to the payment of the previous bet until the end of the cycle.
You plan ahead for profits. Start a new cycle after a failure or a desired result.
Let's imagine that you start the ladder with 1000 rubles and you want to get 4000 rubles in profit. Consider a table of possible outcomes:
|Bet amount||Coefficient||Result Payout|
3. Oscar Grind's strategy.
The Oscar Grind strategy is a strategy where you keep your bet size when you lose and double it when you enter before the end of the cycle.
The first bet is equal to the desired profit. Start a new cycle after achieving the result. Bet with odds from 2.00.
Let's say your bank is 20,000 rubles and you want to get 1,000 rubles in profit. Consider a table of possible outcomes:
|Bet size||Coefficient||Result||Bank amount|
Forks in sports betting
A surebet is an opportunity to place bets on different choices of the same event and are guaranteed to make a profit regardless of the outcome.
Calculate the surebet by the formula:
Sp = 1 / K1 + 1 / K2 +… + 1 / Kn , where Sp is the sum of probabilities, n is the number of choices in one market, and K1, K2,…, Kn are the coefficients for each choice.
If Sp <1 , then you have found a fork.
For example, in the football match “Barcelona” - “Juventus”, the bet on the victory of the hosts, Bookmaker “A” gives for the odds of 2.10, and Bookmaker “B” offers 3.90 for a draw and 4.50 for the success of the guests.
We consider the sum of the probabilities:
1 / 2.10 + 1 / 3.90 + 1 / 4.50 = 0.9548.
Sp <1, we have a fork in front of us.
With 1,000 rubles for Barcelona, 540 rubles for a draw and 460 rubles for Juventus, the total bets will be 2,000 rubles.
The payment in case of success of the owners will be 2100 rubles: 1000 x 2.10. In case of a tie, 2106 rubles: 540 x 3.90. If the guests win, 2070 rubles: 460 x 4.50. You will profit from any outcome of the match.
There is one mathematical betting algorithm that allows you to beat the bookmaker:
- Find a plug.
- Distribute the bet amounts so as to make a profit on any outcome.
Betting mathematics increases your odds in the game with the bookmaker. Use math to make a profit. But be careful. Bookmakers can limit the size of the maximum bet for surebet players, and other strategies do not guarantee a win.
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