To understand the essence of overweight bets, let us consider the principle of forming a bookmaker's line using the example of basketball teams of equal strength.
Each team has 50% to win, so the odds should be 2.00: 100% / 50%. But you will never find mutually exclusive events with odds of 2.00 in the line of the same bookmaker. And that's why:
Let's imagine that two people will bet 100 rubles each to win for different teams. One will win 200 rubles, the other will lose, and the bookmaker will remain with his own people.
To generate income, bookmakers put margin in the odds. You will see the same, but underestimated coefficients in the line. For example, 1.95 for each team to win.
In this case, the margin is 2.56%: (1 / 1.95 + 1 / 1.95 - 1) x 100.
The bookmaker's margin is the commission included in the odds.
Errors in the lines of bookmakers
Bookmakers do not always correctly assess the likelihood of a particular outcome of an event. Consider three examples of direct and indirect errors when drawing a line:
Leading the way
Let's go back to the basketball game. Let's say, on the eve of the event, you learned that the leading player will not play in the home team. The likelihood of a guest winning has increased and the power ratio looks like 30% to 70%
You bet on the guests to win before the bookmaker changed the line. That is, you take an event with a coefficient of 1.95, when even without taking into account the margin, the coefficient should be 1.43. This is a gross rate.
The odds you earned greatly exceeded the real probability of winning the away team. If you enter, you will receive 95 rubles of net profit, and players who bet the same amount later will earn less than 43 rubles, depending on the bookmaker's margin.
The bookmaker initially made the wrong line
Bookmakers rarely make mistakes in big top tournaments, but they can misjudge odds in unpopular championships.
For example, there are two Maltese football clubs playing. The hosts are the original outsider of the tournament with a winning streak. The guests are the favorites of the championship, having started the season poorly.
In such a situation, the bookmaker can give the odds for the guests to win over 2.00. In football, a draw is possible, so play it safe and take guests with a handicap (0) for a coefficient of about 1.50-1.70.
In case of a draw, there will be a refund, and if the guests win, there will be a profit. When choosing such a bet, study as much information as possible about the tournament and teams.
Load on favorite
Load - a large volume of bets on one outcome, due to which the bookmaker reduces the odds for this choice.
You can play against the load in the matches of the favorite with the outsider in a well-balanced league. Consider the NHL duel Anaheim Ducks vs. Washington Capitals.
Washington are confidently leading the league, while Anaheim are at the bottom of the table. A couple of days before the game, the Ducks' victory, taking into account overtime and shootouts, was 2.50, and the Capitals were given 1.60 for the final win.
After two days of betting on Washington, the line changed: the odds were 3.00 for the home win, and 1.44 for the away team. But the bookmaker's initial assessment was correct: The Capitals played their third away game in five days, while the Ducks rested for three days.
There are no weak teams a priori in the NHL, so a bet on Anaheim's victory with odds of 3.00 is a value.
Use automated programs to find value bets. The overweight betting scanner determines the probability of an outcome, analyzes the odds of different bookmakers and finds values.
Use the surebets scanner as an additional source of data. But before you place a bet, check the event information yourself.
Let's give an example of an independent search for value in the Liverpool - Manchester United match.
Consider the lines of three bookmakers.
Total Over 2.5
Total Under 2.5
Calculate the margin using the odds of the bookmaker "A":
100 / 1.65 + 100 / 2.10 = 8.2%
Without margin, the odds would look like this:
Total over 2.5: 1.65 + 8.2% of 1.65 = 1.79.
Total under 2.5: 2.10 + 8.2% of 2.10 = 2.27.
Based on the results obtained, value - the bookmaker B's bet on total goals is less than 2.5 for 2.30, since the odds of the bookmaker's office are higher than the real probability of this outcome.
The pros and cons of overweight betting.
Long-range play can be profitable if the odds are correct.
The ability to bet with one bookmaker. To play on values, it is not necessary to register in several offices.
Overweight bets do not guarantee profits. You can correctly assess the odds of the chosen outcome, but still lose.
It is profitable to make bets with an edge over a long distance if you know how to correctly assess the odds and competently manage the game bank. Use the bookmaker's mistakes to your advantage, but be prepared for a series of several failures.
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