Outsider betting strategy in football: when to play against the favorite

Outsider betting strategy in football: when to play against the favorite
On the victories of outsiders, sometimes you can hit the jackpot. In the matches "Real" - CSKA and "Barcelona" - "Rubin" odds for guests exceeded 10.00.

Outsider betting in football can be profitable over the course of the race, even with a pass rate of less than 30%. It's all about high odds. In this article, we will analyze the features of betting on outsiders in football and by what criteria to select matches for betting on underdogs.

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Why is it profitable to bet on outsiders

The strategy of betting against the favorite can give a solid plus in the distance or allow you to hit the jackpot with a single bet. In bookmakers, the odds for winning the underdog can reach large values. Usually, these are quotes in the range from 4.00 to 7.00, sometimes higher odds are offered.

For long-range profit, betting on the underdogs at the specified odds, it is enough to win one out of four bets.

On the victory of the favorite, they offer to bet with a low coefficient. You need to guess three out of four results or even more to stay in positive territory.

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When to bet on the outsider in football

An outsider betting strategy involves a careful selection of events. In most cases, you are betting on a weak team if a number of factors favor it.

  • Take a look at the history of personal meetings. Many strong clubs have awkward rivals who regularly take points from them.
  • Watch for changes in the composition of the teams. If a stronger club, according to the bookmaker, has the leading players disqualified or injured, you can bet against the favorite.
  • Consider your field factor. Underdogs are often much better at home games in which they regularly score points. Outsiders lose more often on the road.
  • Assess team motivation. For example, at the end of the season, the favorite can already solve all the tournament problems and not so responsibly approach football matches. In such meetings, coaches sometimes release a back-up squad.

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Underdog betting strategies

In addition to betting on a clear win, there are other strategies for betting on outsiders in football.

Outsider Goal Betting

As part of this strategy, make live bets. Before the start of the match, the odds for a goal performed by the underdog are not always higher than 1.70. Watch the game and wait for the quotation for the outsider's scored goal to rise to at least 2.00. Then make the appropriate bid.

Betting on an outsider to win with a plus handicap

In this case, you can bet before the match or during the game. Choose a duel in which the underdog has a good chance of not losing crushingly. Take on his victory with a plus handicap.

For example, in the match for the French Super Cup in 2019, PSG - Rennes, bets on the victory of the second team with a handicap (+2) were accepted at odds of 1.88. At the same time, "Rennes" conceded few goals and in the previous personal meeting with the Parisians in the final of the Cup of the country lost only in a penalty shootout.

In that match, PSG won with a score of 2: 1. A bet with a plus handicap on the outsider has entered.

Pros and cons of an outsider betting strategy in football

The advantages of this strategy include:

  • A large number of football matches almost all year round. This provides a wide range of sports betting events.
  • All bookmakers accept football betting, offering a wide range of events and relatively small margins at major tournaments.
  • You can significantly increase your game bank with a series of several calls in a row.

The main disadvantage of this strategy is the difficulty of choosing the right match for a bet. Bookmakers knowingly give high odds, calculating the probability of victory for each of the teams. You need to be well versed in football, constantly follow the news and correctly assess the current situation in order to have a chance to be in the black at the distance.

Check out some of our Best Betting Spreadsheet  - Analysis football. They will provide you with detailed analysis of each match with high visibility of the results in each match.