How to place surebets in bookmakers: manual search and how to calculate the amount of bets
Finding surebets manually is only half the battle. To earn money, you need to correctly calculate the amount of bets on each outcome and have time to place them with the selected odds. In this article, we will analyze the surebets, how to find them and how to distribute the game bank in order to make a profit.
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What are surebets in bookmakers
A fork is an opportunity to bet on one market with a guaranteed profit.
The shoulders of the fork are the picks that make up the fork.
The formula for calculating the betting plug:
P = 1 / K1 + 1 / K2 +… + 1 / Kn , where Sp is the probability in decimal fraction, K1, K2, Kn are the coefficients for selections of one market, n is the number of selections in this market.
If Sp is 1, this is a fork.
To play on surebets, you need to bet in different bookmakers or wait for a suitable change in the odds in one bookmaker.
Read about the principle of work of bookmakers here: How bookmakers work: what it is, how they are arranged and how they earn money
Search for surebets in bookmakers
Look for matches where opposite odds are given on opposite outcomes. Usually these are meetings of the second-third leagues of countries from Eastern Europe, as well as minor championships in Asia, Africa and South America.
You need to have money in various offices in order to quickly place a bet immediately after finding the surebet.
Let's imagine the line for the match “Volga” - “Kamaz”: the
bookmaker “A” offers to bet on the total goals over 3.5 for the odds of 3.20, and the bookmaker “B” gives 1.57 on the total under 3.5.
Checking the line: 1 / 3.20 + 1 / 1.57 = 0.949443, this is a fork.
But what is the correct way to place surebets in bookmakers?
Determine the amount of bets on opposite outcomes using the formula:
S = B / K / P, where S is the size of the bet on one of the outcomes, K is the odds for this choice, P is the probability in decimal fraction, B is the pot amount for the entire surebet.
We calculate the amount of bets with a dedicated bank of 50,000 rubles:
- Total goals over 3.5 = 50,000 / 3.20 / 0.949443 = 16,457 rubles.
- Total goals under 3.5 = 50,000 / 1.57 / 0.949443 = 33,543 rubles.
For any outcome, the net profit will be 2662 rubles:
- Four goals or more will bring 52,662 rubles: 16,457 x 3.20.
- With two balls or less, you get 52,662 rubles: 33,543 x 1.57.
You will be in positive territory by 5.324%: 2662 x 100 / 50,000. Usually surebets with a yield higher than 5% are almost impossible to find.
Risks when playing with surebets
If you bet on an event with different bookmakers, there is a risk that another bookmaker will refuse to accept the bet or limit the amount, making it impossible to correctly allocate the bank. It should not be ruled out that the odds for the desired outcome will decrease.
Most of the bookmakers reserve the right not to pay out the winnings in the event of an erroneous odds. Illegal bookmakers under this pretext sometimes interfere with the gambling of positive clients. Some legal bookmakers can fight arbers in a similar way. Then you will receive a refund at the rate.
Read about the pros and cons of surebets in sports betting here: Arbitrage betting. What is an arb in sports betting: how this strategy works for bookmakers.
How to make surebets on live bets
Forks Live is a real-time sports betting strategy. You don't need a line error, but the right choice at the start of the match.
For example, in the Spartak - CSKA match, before the start of the meeting, you bet on total goals under 2.5 for 2.05. If the score is not opened within 10-15 minutes, the odds for the total goals over 2.5 become higher than 2.00. By betting the same amount on the opposite outcome, you will make a profit on any outcome.
This strategy is also called live insurance in betting.
Why bookmakers don't like arbers
On the forks, the bookmaker goes into a minus. In the 2000s, people profited from this, but over time, the shop was closed. The offices have improved the system and learned to identify professional players.
It is up to you to play forks or not. To get started, learn this process yourself, betting small amounts 50-100 times. If successful, increase your bet sizes.
Play only in legal bookmakers and carefully calculate the amount of the bet on each arm of the surebet.