How to choose the right match for betting on football: analysis criteria and strategy selection

How to choose the right match for betting on football: analysis criteria and strategy selection
Choosing the right match for betting is sometimes more important than giving the correct prediction. Meetings with the participation of your favorite team are especially dangerous.

Choosing the right match is half the battle. Preliminary analysis of the games will increase your chances of profit over the long run. In this article, we will analyze the criteria for choosing matches and how to correctly bet on football.

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Match selection criteria for betting

Select matches for betting according to the following criteria.

Kind of sport

Most of the players bet on popular sports and top competitions. The most popular sport for betting is football. In 2019, it accounted for 38% of all bets.

There are gamblers who prefer unpopular sports and place bets on underestimated by bookmakers. Such bets are called values.

Value rates: Valuable bets scare the bookmakers. What is value, how to find it and calculation examples

Choose the sports you know best first.

Teams, athletes

Reduce the potential list of events in which you took into account as many factors as possible. For example, the results of the last ten matches, statistics of personal meetings, staffing problems, the physical condition of the players, weather conditions, psychological condition, etc.

Do not place bets on matches that have not been analyzed or taken into account by a number of factors.


The bookmaker analyzes the events and puts the commission in the odds. Read more about this here: Why bookmakers need passport data and SNILS: what else do the offices ask to do and why

The coefficient does not reflect the real probability of the outcome, as it includes the margin. Bookmakers adjust the odds due to player bets, new information about the balance of power, or due to events during the course of the match.

If the odds for one outcome are constantly decreasing, then the bookmaker's players have made a large number of bets on this choice. You can make a profit on this: What is sports betting loading: how cash flow affects the odds in the line

Tournament motivation

The importance of the match for the team helps to better assess the chances of the opponents.

For example, for a friendly match or the return match of a cup match after a crushing victory in the first match, the favorite can play with the reserve team. Thus, the original “sure” can become risky.

If a team needs a victory by two or more goals in the playoffs of European cups, this team will attack, leading by one goal.

Betting Markets

Look out for additional betting markets. For example, in a football match between a clear favorite and a hopeless outsider, the odds for the first to win may be less than 1.15.

To maximize your profit potential, you can bet on the favorite's first goal, goal or corner handicap, and even possession advantage.

How to bet on football correctly

  • Study the statistics. Consider the statistics of head-to-head confrontations between teams from the same division, their playstyle, team form, staffing problems, and more.
  • Don't blindly bet on favorites, especially away against a team that plays well at home.
  • Determine the probability of an outcome and the value of a bet on a particular outcome yourself, and then compare with the bookmaker's odds.
  • Don't bet on sporting events that feature teams that you have a personal liking for.
  • Analyze the statistics of bets in test mode and make adjustments to the rules for choosing sports events for bets. Change your game strategy if necessary.

With a pass rate of 70-80% at a distance, you can go in the red. And with correctly guessed 30% of the outcomes, you can be in the black.

A lot depends on the choice of matches for bets and odds, but not everything. The strategies for distributing the game bank are important. This is financial management when you follow your chosen plan.

To bet on soccer or other sports, do a comprehensive analysis. In addition to statistics, take into account the movement of the odds, the latest news, starting lineups and expert opinions.

Check out some of our best betting software. They will provide you with detailed analysis of each match with high visibility of the results in each match.