There are three ways to beat the bookmaker, but in practice, only one works.
It is unrealistic to win at the bookmaker all the time, but you can go in the black over the distance. In this article, we will analyze the principle of bookmaker's work, where they take profit from and how to beat them.
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How the bookmaker works
Bookmakers do not care which of the players is in the black and who is in the red. Offices profit from margin.
The margin is the commission included in the odds.
Calculate the margin using the formula:
(1 / K1 + 1 / K2 +… + 1 / Kn - 1) x 100 , where K1, K2, Kn are the odds for the outcomes of one market, n is the number of market outcomes.
Imagine that in a tennis match between Karen Khachanov and Nick Kiryos, bookmakers rated the Russian's victory at 30%, and the Australian's at 70%.
Then the probability of winning is converted into coefficients according to the formula:
100 / P , where P is the probability.
The odds for Khachanov's victory will be 3.33: 100/30, and Kiryos's win will go for 1.43: 100 / 70. This is how the line would look like without margin.
Then the bookmaker sets the margin, for example, 4%. An additional 4% will add in proportion to the chances of opponents:
1.20% to Khachanov's victory: 4% x 0.30.
2.80% to Kiryos' winnings: 4% x 0.70.
Now for the Russian 31.20%: 30% + 1.20%, and for the Australian 72.80%.
Taking into account the margin, the coefficient will take the following form:
For Khachanov's victory 3.21: 100 / 31.20.
To win Kiryos 1.37: 100 / 72.80.
On a separate game, the offices may incur losses, but at a distance they will always be in the black because of the margin.
The main thing for a bookmaker is a constant increase in turnover. The more players bet, the more profit from margin.
How to beat a bookmaker
The answer to the question of whether it is realistic to beat the bookmaker and make money on bets can be affirmative.
There are three options to win at the bookmaker's office: two theoretical and one real.
A positive ROI at ROI distance
is the ratio of net profit to the amount of bets made.
Determine ROI as a percentage using the formula:
100 x V / S , where V is the net profit, S is the sum of the bets made.
Let's imagine that you have wagered 50 times, 500 rubles each, on events with two equally probable outcomes. The results can be as follows:
ROI at 70% traffic
ROI at 50% traffic
ROI at 30% traffic
Even at 50% traffic, you get negative ROI. To beat the bookmaker when betting on equally probable outcomes, you must win more than 50% of the time.
Value bets or value bets are bets on underestimated outcomes.
Determine the value by the formula:
K x P> 1 , where K is the coefficient, P is the probability in your opinion.
The difficulty lies in the fact that when playing in a bookmaker's office, you must assess the probability more correctly than the team of analysts.
Calculate the potential profit as a percentage using the formula:
(K x P - 1) x 100
Imagine that in the match Lokomotiv - Ural, the hosts gave a coefficient of 1.53 to win, and you think that the railroad workers have 80% to win ...
We check the bet on the value:
1.53 x 0.8 = 1.22> 1 is the value.
We calculate the percentage of potential profit:
(1.53 x 0.8 - 1) x 100 = 22.4%
For football matches with the same odds and odds of winning, you will receive a 22.4% profit over the course if you correctly assess all possible outcomes.