Football draw betting strategies
The odds for a draw in football are almost always higher than 3.00. In matches with a clear favorite, the odds can exceed 6.00.
Bookmakers give high odds because the probability of a draw in football is much lower than the probability of one of the teams winning. In the 2019/20 season of the English Premier League, the winner was determined in 76% of matches. Only 24% of the games ended in a draw.
In football, betting on a draw is a risk. In this sport, a lot depends on chances - the bounce of the ball, a penalty for a violation in the penalty area or an injury to the leading player. Therefore, it is almost impossible to predict the absence of a winner with high accuracy. To hedge against accidents and increase the chance of winning, use a strategy.
Draw in the betting lines can be denoted by X . In this example, the odds for a draw are 3.55.
Catching a draw is no different from similar strategies for betting on other outcomes in football. The player bets that no team will win, and in case of a loss, he continues to bet on a draw, increasing the amount of the bet after each loss. The chain closes at the first successful bet.
For example, a player bets 100 rubles on a draw with odds of 3.00 or higher. If the bet fails, the next time he bets a larger amount on the same outcome.
You can calculate how much you need to bet after a loss using the formula:
S = (W + Sn) ÷ (k - 1) , where
- S - the amount of the new bet
- W - the sum of the potential winnings of the first bet
- Sn - the sum of previous losses
- k - coefficient of the event for a new bet
Choosing to catch up for a draw in football, the player assumes that sooner or later his bet will come in, compensate for the loss and help to earn.
Let's go back to the example with the player who bet 100 rubles. After the first loss, he continued to bet on the same outcome and lost five more times before the first successful bet.
|Order of bets||Sum||Coefficient|
In total, the player bet 1652 rubles. The winning of the fourth bet brought 2934 rubles. The player not only won back all the bet money, but also made a profit - 1282 rubles.
Tips for using Dogon
1. Study team statistics
In football, it is better to look for an event for a bet on a draw using the statistics of the teams' performance in the last games.
You can view the statistics on the official websites of the tournaments or open statistical portals. Sites championat.com, ru.whoscored.com, flashscore.ru, understat.com, SoccerSTATS are suitable (in the latter two, only the English version is available). On whoscored.com and understat.com, use the tie filter to see which team is tied for points.
Choose the clubs with the most draws. For example, Wolverhampton have shared points 6 times in their first 10 games in the 2019/20 Premier League. A team with such statistics is suitable for a bet.
It is also important to consider who the team we are interested in is playing with. Sometimes the club predominantly shares points with strong opponents, and sometimes with equals. For some teams, the field is also important - home or guest. The most convenient way to track this data is SoccerSTATS.
2. Limit the area for choosing a bet
If you choose a new team for each catch-up bet, you can run into a series of unsuccessful bets. For example, you won't be lucky and there will always be a winner in the matches you choose. To reduce your dependence on luck, set limits on your bets.
Select one team and set the number of matches during which you will bet on a draw in games with only its participation. Sooner or later, the team will play with the desired outcome.
3. Consider that money may run out
Before betting on a draw on a draw, assess your possibilities - in football without winners, not many matches end, and you are unlikely to win for a chain of three or four bets. A draw may not fall for a long period. You will have to stop because of the lack of money in the bank or the limitation of the maximum bet, which all bookmakers have.
Wolverhampton statistics for the 2019/20 Premier League season on SoccerSTATS. The table shows that the "wolves" played in a draw with strong clubs and the middle peasants of the championship. Wolverhampton have never shared points with the weakest teams in the league.
In this soccer betting strategy, a player wagers on a draw with a fixed percentage of the pot. In order not to lose everything at once, it is better to make small bets, for example, 1% of the bank. This approach allows you to control costs.
For example, a player's bank is 50,000 rubles. 1% of the bank - 500 rubles.
The player bets 500 rubles on a draw with the odds of 3.25. The bet does not enter.
The player's bank has decreased to 49,500 rubles. Next time the player bets 495 rubles on a draw with the odds of 3.20. The bet is successful. The player has 50 589 rubles at his disposal (50 000 - 500 - 495 + 1584). Profit - 589 rubles.
Tips for using flat
1. Do not raise the percentage of the bet in the event of a losing streak
A raise will lead to a quick drain on the bank, and if the unsuccessful streak continues, there will be a risk of losing the entire bank.
2. Carefully study the statistics when choosing matches
When choosing an event for making a bet, be guided by statistics. The more statistically justified bets on a draw in football, the higher the chance of making a successful bet.
3. Keep in mind that with long losing streaks, the chance of winning back and making a profit decreases.
If, in the example above, the player made three unsuccessful bets and won only the fourth time with the odds of 3.20, he would have at his disposal only 49,604 rubles - less than before the start of the game.
You can bet on a draw in another match with a higher odds. But the higher the odds, the less likely the event is. There is a risk of prolonging the losing streak.
System bets on draws
The system is a bet of at least 3 events. To receive a prize, it is not necessary that all events in the system have passed. The number of events that determines the passage of the system is called the dimension.
The dimension is designated as follows: "2 out of 3", "3 out of 5", "7 out of 10". Dimension "3 out of 5" means that the player has made a system of 5 matches, and in order to get a win, he needs to guess the outcome of 3 matches.
For example, a player bets on a tie in three matches. He chooses the dimension "2 out of 3". His system will consist of three express bets with three different combinations of matches. Each combination will have two matches. The player will receive a win if the bets are held in at least two matches, that is, he wins one of the three express bets.
The system is more convenient than a regular express, because it allows you to win even if not all bets are entered.
The disadvantage of the system is that the total bet amount is evenly distributed among all express bets. If only 1 out of 3 multiples of the system wins, the player will receive a small win:
Win = "1/3 of the total bet amount" X " Winning multiplier odds".
The higher the coefficient, the more profitable the system. Draws that always come with a high ratio are perfect for systems.
Let's go back to the example. A player bets on a draw in three matches. He is satisfied with the "2 out of 3" system. The bet amount is 1000 rubles. This money will be evenly divided among the three express trains. For each express, the rate will be 333 rubles.
|Event||Coefficient||The first express||Second express||Third express|
|Man City - Liverpool||3.45||3.45||3.45||Event not available|
|Wolverhampton - Bournemouth||5.40||5.40||Event not available||5.40|
|Crystal Palace - Newcastle||3.25||Event not available||3.25||3.25|
Let's say there were bets on a draw in the matches "Man City" - "Liverpool" and "Crystal Palace" - "Newcastle". This means that only the second accumulator will win, where both of these bets were. Express odds - 11.21. The winnings are 3,737 rubles, the net profit is 2,737 rubles. The player won back his money and came out on top.
If the odds were lower, for example, 1.45 in all three events, the player's winnings in this situation would be only 700 rubles. This is why betting on a draw system is more profitable than betting on other outcomes.
Tips for betting system on draws
1. Evaluate the statistics of teams when choosing bets and bet on a draw in those matches where there is a high probability of such an outcome.
Usually, more or less probable draws come with odds up to 4.00. Chasing higher odds is not worth it. In the system, the odds of winning events are multiplied, so the final odds will still be quite high. It is better to concentrate on picking the most likely draw matches. The more correct bets, the bigger the win.
2. Combine no more than 3-4 events in the system
A large number of events increases the likelihood of winning, but if not all bets enter, the profit will be small - the total amount of bets will be divided among all express bets, including losing ones.
3. When calculating the system, use the system calculator
The calculator will allow you to more accurately calculate the possible profit. Many bookmakers offer their own calculators.
4. Consider the cons of the system
The main disadvantage is that if you fail to guess the required number of outcomes, the whole system will lose.
The second disadvantage is the probability of a small win with a large number of events. For example, in case of winning 3 out of 5 events, the player will receive a profit of 2,433 rubles, and if he wins the same 3 matches, but already out of 6 events, 716 rubles. The fewer events, the more risky the system is.
Betting on a draw in live with a safety net
When a team scores a goal during a match, the odds for a draw increase. Because of this, in live, you can catch a high odds for an equal outcome. In most cases, it will be higher than in the prematch. The goal is to bet on a draw in live with the maximum odds.
Betting on live bets is better to insure. For example, you can divide the pot between the bet on a draw, which we will make during the match, and an additional bet - on the victory of either team.
In practice, the strategy looks like this. The player divides the pot into two parts. It takes 20% for one bet, and 80% for the second. In the prematch, he puts 80% of the bank on "12".
“12” - a bet that there will be no draw in the match.
Then the player watches the match. If one of the teams scores and the bookmakers raise the odds for a draw, the player bets 20% of the pot on this outcome.
It is important to wager with the highest possible odds. In most cases, it is unprofitable to bet with odds below 6.00.
For example, in the prematch of the event Liverpool - Chelsea, the bet on "12" is bet at odds of 1.27. A bet on a draw - with the odds of 3.80.
The player's bank is 5000 rubles. In the prematch, he bets 4000 rubles on “12”. In case of winning, the player will receive 5080 rubles, net profit - 1080 rubles.
Liverpool scores first. The odds for a draw increase to 7.00. The player places a bet on the remaining 1000 rubles. If the bet passes, the player will receive 7,000 rubles, net profit - 6,000 rubles. He will recoup the costs of both bets and receive 2,000 rubles.
In any scenario of the match, the player wins.
Liverpool v Chelsea odds before the start of the game
Odds for the match Liverpool - Chelsea live
Live betting tips with a safety net
1. In the prematch, look for odds for the victory of any of the teams in the range of 1.25-1.35 and bet 80-85% of the bank on the event
If this bet hits, you will be able to win back the money you wagered.
Calculate in advance how much the bet will bring if you win. The result must be equal to or greater than the jar.
2. Determine what odds for a draw in live will allow you to stay in the black
K = B ÷ C
- K - Coefficient
- B - Desired winnings
- С - The amount of the bet on a draw
If the player from the example above wanted to win 8000 rubles, then he would have to wait for the coefficient of 8.00.
3. Keep in mind that there is a risk of not waiting for an increase in the odds for a draw
Let's say a player bet any of the teams to win in the prematch, but during the game none of the clubs scored. By the end of the match, the odds for a draw will decrease, there is a risk of not having time to place a bet with an odds that will help return the pot.
In addition, the odds for a draw may rise slightly. It will be unprofitable to bet on this outcome.
Single bets on a draw in football
Not everyone wants to get involved in strategies with wagering, betting on multiple matches and playing simultaneously in prematch and live. It is possible to bet on draws without a rigid bank management system. Due to the low frequency of draws in football, the chance of a serious win without a long-term betting strategy is low, but small profits can be made.
How to bet on a draw in football without a strategy:
- Study the statistics of the championship you are interested in.
- Identify patterns.
- Place your bet on a draw according to the statistics.
There are several strategies for betting on a draw based on patterns in football matches.
First half draw bets 0: 0
According to statistics, the most popular score in the first half of most championships is 0: 0. For example, in the RPL of the 2018/19 season, the score was 0: 0 in the first 96 halves. This is 40% of all matches played in the season. For comparison: the next most frequent score is 1: 0, it entered 22% of all games.
If, with such statistics, you find an unperforming team, the chance of a successful bet will increase.
For example, in the 2018/19 season, Akhmat showed poor performance in the first halves. On average, in the starting 45 minutes, Akhmat scored 0.4 goals to their opponents and conceded 0.2 goals. It was 1 of the 10 lowest in the league. The consequence of this result - 7 clean draws in the first 12 halves at the start of the season. In general, for the season the rate went into 16 of the 30 first halves of Akhmat.
The bet on a 0: 0 draw was even more obvious when Akhmat played with the same ineffective teams. For example, Rubin scored 0.3 goals on average in the first halves and conceded 0.4 goals. In both face-to-face meetings between Akhmat and Rubin, the first halves ended with a score of 0: 0.
First Half Draw Bets
A draw does not have to be zero. If there is a chance that the teams will score, you can play it safe and bet on the outcome without specifying the score.
The odds for such an event will be lower than for a goalless draw.
In the CSKA - Tambov match, the bet on the fact that no one will score in the first half goes with the odds of 3.15, and on a draw with any score - with the odds of 2.60
Draw bets in the first 15 minutes of the match
Least of all goals are in the first 15 minutes of the game. For example, in the Premier League of the 2019/20 season, only 11.2% of goals were scored in the starting 15 minutes. For comparison: in the last 15 minutes of regular time, 21.7% of goals were scored.
Such bets are suitable not only for matches of national championships, but also for European cups. There teams from different championships meet, at the beginning of the meetings they look closely at each other and play carefully. For example, Zenit did not score or concede a single goal in the 2019/20 Champions League in the first 15 minutes of matches.
Draw bets 1: 1
In many championships, 1: 1 is the most common score. For example, in the 2019/20 season, such a result took first place in terms of frequency in the major leagues of England, Germany, Spain, Russia, Sweden, Argentina, and Japan.
Most often, matches of two teams playing on defense, or equal in strength, end with such a score.
Betting against a draw
The probability of victory for one of the teams is high. At the same time, you do not need to think about which team will win - it will arrange the outcome in favor of any club. Of the obvious disadvantages is a low coefficient, it rarely rises above 1.40.