Find Arbitrage Bets - Arbitrage Betting Strategy & Calculator

Find Arbitrage Bets - Arbitrage Betting Strategy & Calculator

The term arbitrage actually comes from the financial world and is primarily to be found in forex trading. For sports bettors who want to make lasting profits with online bets, however, it can also be worthwhile to take a closer look at this topic. Because in the field of sports betting, arbitrage betting is also a possible concept. The aim of arbitrage betting is to take advantage of the bookmakers' fluctuations in odds. And the whole thing apparently without any risk. What sounds like a fairy tale at first, definitely requires a lot of knowledge and research. We show you what arbitrage bets are and how you can use them sensibly.

What are arbitrage bets?

The term arbitrage comes from French and describes the possibility of exploiting different prices for one and the same commodity. In relation to sports betting, it is a strategy in which the differences between the betting odds of different bookmakers are used profitably. The purpose of arbitrage bets is therefore to reap a secure profit through price and odds differences after the sports bet has been concluded.

But how does it work: betting with a sure win? When placing the arbitrage bet, the sports bettor takes advantage of the natural and temporary fluctuations in the range of the betting odds offered.

When adjusting the odds for a particular sporting event, bookmakers make a variety of considerations. Among other things, the changed performance of individual teams, injuries to players as well as other current events and occasionally the bookmaker's gut feeling are taken into account. In many cases, this makes it a rule that the betting odds can rise as well as fall by the time the game starts.

This is particularly evident in the area of live betting . Here the betting odds are directly aligned with the current events on the field. This inevitably leads to permanent changes in the betting odds.

arbitrage betting

The above example shows a selection of live bets at the bookmaker Tipico . Sports bettors will definitely find what they are looking for when looking for arbitrage bets. Due to the rapid and frequent changes in the game, there are also more and more gross differences in the odds structure by the respective bookmakers.

Concept of arbitrage betting

The concept of arbitrage betting is now quite simply to recognize the changes and developments in the betting market as early as possible and in this way to achieve a profitable effect. Because of course different tips are given at the same event at different bookmakers. Due to the different betting odds, these promise a plus on the betting account regardless of how the event ultimately ends.

Example of arbitrage bets in the field of tennis

The easiest way to explain the concept of arbitrage betting is with an example from practice. Let's take a tennis match between Raffael Nadal and Roger Federer. Assuming that the Spaniard wins, a bookmaker offers odds of 1.5. In contrast, the rate for a Federer victory at the best sports betting provider is 3.65.

In order to be successful in any case with an arbitrage bet, the stake is divided. Of the total amount of 940.64 euros, 666.67 euros are bet on a Nadal win. The remaining 273.97 are invested in a winner's tip on Federer. In this case, regardless of the final result, there will always be a win.

  • If Nadal wins: If Raffael Nadal wins , the sports bettor makes a profit of 1,000 euros from the first bookmaker. This is simply determined from the betting odds (1.5 × 666.67). Of course, the lost bet at bookmaker 2 and the stake must be deducted from this: 1,000-940.64 = 59.36. The net profit is thus 59.36 euros.
  • If Federer wins: If Roger Federer wins, Bookmaker 2 will also win 1,000 euros (3.65 × 273.97). If you also subtract the lost bet at bookmaker 1 and the stake, the result is logically a net profit of 59.36 euros.

Regardless of how the two opponents fare, there is always a profit on the betting account. From this point of view, arbitrage betting can be said to be risk free. The problem with this: How can these be found?

Recognize the opportunities that arise

In order to be successful with arbitrage betting you need to be patient and act quickly. Because of the constant changes in online betting, there is often only a very short time window in which the odds can be used for a safe bet.

arbitrage bet

The basis for placing arbitrage bets is a comprehensive comparison of betting odds . There are various tools available to help you find the best odds. In order to be able to recognize tendencies and fluctuations, it is advisable to compare the betting odds of the various bookmakers over a longer period of time. If there is now the suspicion that a certain offer could be an arbitrage bet, a simple calculation can provide certainty:

Value to check the arbitrage bet = 1 / odds 1 + 1 / odds 2

Here, too, we give a small example. In a soccer game, the odds for more than 2.5 goals with the first bookmaker are 2.0. Another sports betting provider has a betting odds of 2.1 in its program for a game outcome with less than 2.5 goals. Using the formula mentioned, the calculation would then look like this:

1 / 2.00 + 1 / 2.10 = 0.976

If the calculation results in a number less than 1, the sports bettor always wins. In the example above, this would correspond to 2.3 percent of the stake. (1-0.976 = 0.023).

Divide the bet correctly

If a suitable Abritage bet has been found, the question now arises as to how the bet is best divided. The optimal distribution can also be determined using a corresponding formula.

Bet for the tip = desired payout / betting odds 1 or 2

The calculation can also be explained using a small example. Assume an amount of 100 euros (desired payout) is to be used. This results in a stake of 50 euros (100/2) on the goal bet with more than 2.5 goals. For the tip with less than 2.5 goals, 47.60 (100 / 2.1) are used.

With this distribution of stakes, the sports bettor can look forward to any number of goals. A total of 97.60 euros is staked for the two bets, but the profit is 100 euros in each case.

Are there any risks or disadvantages in arbitrage betting?

As already mentioned, arbitrage bets are a concept that, if used correctly, will always result in a profit. Nevertheless, there are a few points to consider with this betting strategy. The uncertainties here mostly lie in other areas.

High commitment required

A high stake is required in two senses in arbitrage bets. On the one hand, it takes some time to find the right betting odds and, on the other hand, a correspondingly higher amount has to be used.

Multiple betting accounts

Since this strategy always involves betting with different bookmakers, several betting accounts are of course required. In this respect, an active account must be available with as many sports betting providers as possible. In principle, the following applies: The more bookmakers are available for arbitrage bets, the better odds differences can be achieved. However, sports bettors should always be careful not to lose track of things.

Short time windows

If a suitable arbitrage bet has been found after an intensive search, action must be taken as quickly as possible. Since the current odds can be changed by the bookmakers at any time, there is usually only a very short time window for placing bets. Because if one of the two tips is played and the odds of the second betting provider change in the wrong direction, the dream of a safe bet is over. The real risk with this type of bet lies in the time resources.

Bookmakers are constantly adjusting their risk assessments. Therefore, an arbitrage can take as little as 15 minutes. So time is a crucial factor. However, as soon as the person is pressed for time, mistakes can occur. Arbitrage software systems can be helpful in this case. However, the cost of doing this will also affect your profit margin.

Betting tax as an obstacle

The betting tax introduced in 2012 makes arbitrage betting an extremely difficult undertaking. Since there is only a small profit due to the small difference in odds compared to the stake, this can be completely eaten up by the 5 percent betting tax. However, there are also bookmakers who offer tax-free sports betting.

Bet cancellation

Bookmakers always have the option to cancel incorrect bets. However, this means that the customer is not protected in such a case. It is easy to lose profits that have been made over a long period of time.

Conclusion on the Abitrage bets

Overall, arbitrage betting is a strategy that targets errors, inaccurate assessments by betting providers and fluctuations in the market. The strategy has been used since bookmakers existed and especially since sports betting has been a normal leisure activity. The online sports betting offer has now made it easier for tipsters to compare the odds and act quickly.

On the other hand, the severe time restrictions must be observed. Because it is of course in the interest of the bookmaker to adapt the betting odds to current changes as quickly as possible in order to reduce the possibility of arbitrage bets. Of course, this also results in a very special thrill in risk-free betting.

Of course, there is also a certain risk with arbitrage bets. If the sports bettor miscalculates or misjudges a situation, there is a risk of high losses.

Check out some of our Best Betting Spreadsheet  - Analysis football. They will provide you with detailed analysis of each match with high visibility of the results in each match.