Betting on the favorite in football: strategies for live and pre-match, arguments for outsiders

Betting on the favorite in football: strategies for live and pre-match, arguments for outsiders
Betting on the favorite in soccer is the perfect path to bankruptcy. There is a small time window when it is really profitable to bet on giants.

In 2019, 38% of bets were on football. The overwhelming majority are favorites. We explain why it is unprofitable at a distance and analyze the strategies of betting on favorites and outsiders.

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How to determine the favorite in sports betting

Consider the team as the favorite of the confrontation, which has:

  • better goal difference,
  • more points in the last ten matches,
  • advantage in personal meetings,
  • the absence of one or more opponents due to injury with their own optimal composition.

The easiest way to determine a favorite is to trust the opinion of the bookmakers. Which team is lower than the coefficient, that one and consider the favorite.

Odds - display of the probability of winning or another outcome, taking into account the bookmaker's margin. The bookmaker assessed the ratio of the forces of the rivals and took into account many factors.

If the odds on the outcome are 1.43 or lower, the bookmakers consider that the bet will be successful with a probability of 70% or higher.

Odds higher than 3.00 are the aggregate of the estimate of the outsider's odds and the result of losing the line due to bets on the favorite.

Sports Betting Loads: What is sports betting loading: how cash flow affects the odds in the line

Favorite betting strategies

We make a bet on a favorite if this team:

  • is at the peak of its game form,
  • performs at home,
  • pursues tournament motivation: reaching the playoffs, a match to maintain a residence permit, a fight for a place in the top 4, and so on.

Pros and cons of betting on a favorite

The advantage of the betting strategy on the favorite is the high probability of winning. Disadvantages - underestimated odds and small profit in comparison with the amount of the bet.

This soccer betting strategy will usually drain the pot at a distance. Any grand sooner or later loses or draws.

Most players prefer to bet on favorites. This leads to a decrease in the coefficients.

To increase your potential profit, bet on the favorite immediately after the appearance of the bookmaker's line. The downside is that the balance of power may change before the match.

Betting strategy against the favorite

Bet on the victory of an outsider with a positive handicap in the following cases.

  • The team plays at home and is inferior at home in less than 50% of matches.
  • The guests are the principal rival.
  • The favorite in the last five matches won no more than once with a margin.
  • An outsider concedes less home goals on average.
  • Live, if the favorite has been injured and / or key attackers have been removed.

You can bet against the favorite according to the catch-up strategy. Take odds above 1.90. Thus, the first winning bet will cover all losses from previous failures, and you can make a profit.

On the first bet, you must wager no more than 1% of the bank. This may seem like a too conservative approach. But with several failures in a row, you are at great risk.

An example of playing catch-up using a betting strategy against a favorite:

Bank Coefficient Bet amount Result New bank
20 000 1.90 200 Losing 19 800
19 800 2.05 400 Losing 19 400
19 400 2.40 800 Losing 18 600
18 600 2.00 1 600 Winnings 20 200

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Pros and cons of a betting strategy against a favorite

Dignity - the probability of an outcome may be greater than the coefficient, due to the load per favorite. It is more profitable to bet on an outsider a few minutes before the start of the match.

The disadvantage is the difficulty in choosing a suitable event.

Check out some of our Best Betting Spreadsheet  - Analysis football. They will provide you with detailed analysis of each match with high visibility of the results in each match.