Betting on the favorite in soccer is the perfect path to bankruptcy. There is a small time window when it is really profitable to bet on giants.
In 2019, 38% of bets were on football. The overwhelming majority are favorites. We explain why it is unprofitable at a distance and analyze the strategies of betting on favorites and outsiders.
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How to determine the favorite in sports betting
Consider the team as the favorite of the confrontation, which has:
better goal difference,
more points in the last ten matches,
advantage in personal meetings,
the absence of one or more opponents due to injury with their own optimal composition.
The easiest way to determine a favorite is to trust the opinion of the bookmakers. Which team is lower than the coefficient, that one and consider the favorite.
Odds - display of the probability of winning or another outcome, taking into account the bookmaker's margin. The bookmaker assessed the ratio of the forces of the rivals and took into account many factors.
If the odds on the outcome are 1.43 or lower, the bookmakers consider that the bet will be successful with a probability of 70% or higher.
Odds higher than 3.00 are the aggregate of the estimate of the outsider's odds and the result of losing the line due to bets on the favorite.