Betting on the correct score in football: strategy, how to predict matches
Bookmakers give high odds on the exact score in the match, but it is very difficult to make a correct prediction. In this article, we'll look at how to analyze an event in order to increase the chances of making a successful bet, as well as consider strategies for betting on the correct score.
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What to consider when betting on the correct score in football
- Use statistics. For example, use the results of last season to compile a list of the most popular accounts.
- Analyze which team most often played with this score. Estimate the likelihood of this outcome in the selected long-distance match. Take at least ten face-to-face meetings.
- Assess changes in power balance due to injuries and disqualifications.
- Consider the teams' motivation in a given match.
Betting strategy for the correct score in football
Let's summarize in the table the probabilities of outcomes on the exact score in the Example, Premier League and RPL for the 2018/19 season
|Check||% matches in Example||% of Premier League matches||% of RPL matches|
The most popular scores in the Example are 1: 0 and 2: 1. 20.79% of matches ended with such scores.
In the Premier League, most matches end with a score of 1: 1 and 1: 2 - 17.36% of meetings. In RPL, 25% of fights are 1: 0 and 1: 1 scores.
Bookmakers offer odds from 5.00 on the exact score 1: 1 in RPL matches. For profit on a long distance with a probability of passing 15%, you need to bet with a coefficient of 6.67.
Why? If K x P> 1, profit is possible at the distance. P is your estimate of the probability, K is the coefficient.
In our case: 6.67 x 0.15 = 1.0005.
Determine the possible profit at a distance using the formula:
N x S x (K x P - 1), where N is the number of bets, P is your estimate of the probability, K is the odds, S is the amount of the bet.
Let's imagine that you have made 240 bets of 500 euro each on an accurate score of 1: 1 in all RPL matches with an average odds of 7.00. With 15% guessed results, the profit will be 6000 euro: 240 x 500 x (7.00 x 0.15 - 1).
If you take the matches of teams that, on average, score about a goal and concede the same amount, this will increase the chances.
For example, in the 2018/2019 season, Akhmat played six matches with a score of 1: 1. Having made 30 bets of 500 euro each with a coefficient of 7.00, it was possible to make a profit of 6,000 euro: 30 x 500 x (7.00 x 0.20 - 1).
The strategy of catching up on the exact score
Catching up is a strategy of increasing the amount of bets after each loss so that one run brings a profit, taking into account previous failures.
To play catch-up on the exact score, take matches with the participation of equal opponents. Bookmakers give odds from 5.00 to the exact score 1: 0 in fights Examples. Consider an example of a catch-up with an initial bank of 20,000 euro and a first bet of 1,000 euro.
|Bank||Coefficient||Bet amount||Result||New bank|
Sports betting catch-up: Martingale strategy in sports betting: catching up safely or losing system
27 express strategy
To successfully play this strategy, select the three most popular scores from one championship and the six teams that most often end the match with this outcome.
On a round in which the selected six teams are split into three pairs, you bet 27 express bets. One Express - three selections for the correct score in each pair. You take each of the three most popular statistical accounts.
For example, in the Spanish championship, matches most often end with the scores 1: 0, 2: 1 and 2: 0. If you make 27 express bets of 100 euro each with the odds of 6.00, in case of success, the payout will be 21,600 euro: 100 x 6.00 x 6.00 x 6.00.
If in at least one of the three selected matches the score is different from 1: 0, 2: 1 and 2: 0, all 27 express bets will lose.
Betting strategy on the exact score on the favorite
This strategy game consists of three stages:
- Choose an event in which the favorite and the outsider meet.
- Form a list of five to six most likely outcomes.
- Distribute your bankroll according to the value betting principle.
In the 2018/2019 season, Manchester City won 18 of 19 home games. Five matches ended with a score of 3: 1, three - with a score of 1: 0, two times there were 3: 0, 2: 0 and 2: 1 scores.
Consider the match between Manchester City and Manchester United. We will summarize the coefficients for popular accounts in a table.
|Check||1: 0||2: 0||2: 1||3: 0||3: 1|
We distribute the bankroll to each account according to the formula:
S = 1 / К / Sp х B, where S is the amount of the bet on the outcome, Sp is the sum of probabilities, B is the bank for a series of bets.
Sp = 1 / K1 + 1 / K2 +… + 1 / Kn, where Sp is the sum of probabilities, n is the number of outcomes, K1, K2, ..., Kn are the coefficients.
Sp = 1/5 + 1/6 + 1/7 + 1/9 + 1/11 = 0.71
Let's assume that you will total 10,000 euro on the correct account.
We calculate the amount of the bet for each outcome:
- For 1: 0 - 2810 euro: 1 / 5.00 / 0.71 x 10,000.
- For 2: 0 - 2340 euro: 1 / 6.00 / 0.71 x 10,000.
- For 2: 1 - 2010 euro: 1 / 7.00 / 0.71 x 10,000.
- For 3: 1 - 1280 euro: 1 / 11.00 / 0.71 x 10,000.
- For 3: 0 - 1560 euro: 1 / 9.00 / 0.71 x 10,000.
Guaranteed payment - 14040 euro:
- At 1: 0 - 14,050 euro: 2810 x 5.00.
- At 2: 0 - 14,040 euro: 2340 x 6.00.
- At 2: 1 - 14,070 euro: 2010 x 7.00.
- At 3: 1 - 14,080 euro: 1280 x 11.00.
- At 3: 0 - 14,040 euro: 1560 x 9.00.
Betting on the exact score is worse than distance totals
In the long run, betting on the exact score is not profitable compared to totals. A simple example proves this. For example, in the match "Slutsk" - "Energetik" in the Major League, bookmakers give the following odds:
- 3.20 on total under 1.5.
- 7.10 on the account 1: 0.
- 8.40 on the account 0: 0.
- 9.10 on the account 0: 1.
If the total is less than 1.5, one of three selections will be played on the correct score. With a bet of 1000 euro on the total less than 1.5, the potential payout is 3200 euro: 1000 x 3.20.
The total probability of accurate scores 1: 0, 0: 0 and 0: 1 is 0.3697: 1 / 7.10 + 1 / 8.40 + 1 / 9.10.
We distribute 1000 euro by outcome:
- At 1: 0 - 381 euro: 1 / 7.10 / 0.3697 x 1000.
- At 0: 0 - 322 euro: 1 / 8.40 / 0.3697 x 1000.
- For 0: 1 - 297 euro: 1 / 9.10 / 0.3697 x 1000.
In this case, the potential payout is about 2705 euro for any choice to the correct account. Almost 500 euro difference in comparison with the total is less than 1.5.
Betting on the correct score in football beckons with high odds, but they are highly likely to lead to a minus in the distance. The margin in this market is higher than in the bets on the usual total.
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