Betting on a draw in football: types of outcomes, choice of matches and strategies
Betting on a draw in football starts at odds of 3.00, but this outcome is not easy to catch. We will tell you how to analyze statistics and select matches for bets on a draw, as well as consider strategies for playing live and prematch.
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How a draw is displayed in the bookmaker's list
Draw - equality in goals, points, and other statistical indicators. Such a result is possible at the end of the match, half, or another time period.
There are many types of bets in the bookmaker's list, in which a draw is taken into account:
- "Draw" or "X" - the outcome of the game, half, regular time, another segment;
- “1X”, “X2” - the rate is win or draw;
- "There will be no draw", "12" - victory of one of the teams;
- “There will be overtime - yes / no” - an analogue of a net bet on a draw in matches where a draw is possible in regular time;
- bet on the exact score - 0: 0, 1: 1, 2: 2, etc.
- “Total under 0.5” is an analogue of a zero draw.
In many bets, a draw results in an expense. For example, if you take a handicap (0) on one of the opponents, in case of a tie, the bet amount will be returned.
In live, you can bet on a draw several times in one event. For example, in a basketball game - for regular time, for two halves and for four quarters: only seven bets, plus overtime is also possible.
Zero handicap in bets: What does handicap 0 mean in football betting: what is F1, F2 and the difference from a double chance
Betting on a draw in football: statistics
Most often they bet on a draw in football. This is due to the fact that the percentage of draws here is higher than in other sports.
The statistics of the draws in the previous seasons of the championships, which are of the greatest interest to Russian fans:
|Italy, Serie A||31.58%||25.00%||21.05%||21.84%||28.42%|
|Spain, La Liga||23.95%||24.21%||23.42%||22.63%||28.95%|
|England, Premier League||24.47%||28.16%||22.11%||26.05%||18.68%|
|France Ligue 1||23.16%||28.42%||24.74%||25.26%||28.95%|
|Russia, Premier League||25.42%||27.92%||27.08%||27.92%||29.17%|
A strategy for betting on a draw based only on statistics will not work. The number of matches drawn in each championship varies greatly from season to season.
Therefore, over a long distance, it is impossible to navigate a specific championship and team.
How to select matches for tied bets
Given that there is no long-term statistical pattern in all football leagues, analyze each match separately.
The probability of a draw increases under the following conditions:
- a stronger team is playing away;
- the bet on the victory of the favorite goes for odds of 2.00;
- the favorite is not motivated to win at any cost;
- in the composition of a stronger club there are no leading performers of the attacking line;
- difficult weather conditions hinder effective football.
There are players who, taking into account the above factors, make single bets on a draw. The advantage lies in high odds - above 3.30.
But the obvious drawback is the unpredictability of draw results. Often a team win by one goal in the last minutes of the game. Therefore, the clients of the bookmaker go to special tricks.
Many players prefer to bet on a draw in the first half. Here, the low performance of the opponents in the first half of the meetings is connected to the probability factors.
This can be seen in the statistics. However, the odds of the bookmakers drop to 1.70-2.50, which in turn makes single bets on a draw meaningless in the distance.
The "2 out of 5" strategy for betting on a draw: essence and example
Many players prove the effectiveness of a strategy such as a 2 out of 5 system for draws. The essence of this strategy is to combine careful selection of matches using a systematic type of bet.
The average odds for a draw is 3.10-3.30, and for a double - 9.61-10.89. In the "2 out of 5" system, you make 10 of these express bets.
If at least one of them wins, that is, two matches out of the selected five end in a draw, the total bet will almost pay off or you will get a small plus.
If there is a draw in three or more meetings, the system bet brings a significant profit.
What is a system bet: What is a system in sports betting: types, calculation, how it differs from an express bet
We choose a championship with a relatively low performance - the championship of Greece. We bet on the matches of the 25th round, held on February 22-23, 2020.
We need to choose five out of seven games. We do not use the opposition Atromitas - Xanthi and AEK - OFI, since the hosts are clear favorites in them.
Let's draw up a final table for the rest of the matches, indicating the odds for a draw and the final results:
|PAOK - Olympiacos||3.20||0-1|
|"Volos" - "Larissa"||3.18||0-0|
|"Panetolikos" - "Panionis"||3.55||1-0|
|"Lamia" - "Aris"||3.30||2-2|
|Asteras - Panathinaikos||3.10||1-1|
Let's imagine that we have entered into a system bet “2 out of 5” by placing 1000 rubles. Each of the ten express trains costs 100 rubles. We played three such doubles, bringing payments:
3.18 x 3.30 x 100 = 1049.4
3.18 x 3.10 x 100 = 985.8
3.30 x 3.10 x 100 = 1023
The payout at the rate was 3058.2 rubles, and the net profit was 2058.2.
It is also important that our strategy and matchmaking paid off. Indeed, in the other two games, the minimum advantage of one of the teams was recorded. If one more meeting ended in a draw, the profit would be several times higher.
Draw betting strategy - surebets / safety net in live
Another well-known draw betting strategy is live surebets / safety net. We act according to the following algorithm:
- select a match in which the odds are 1.70-1.90 for the favorite to win, and the bet “one of the teams wins” (“12”) is quoted at the level of 1.25-1.35;
- we put 80-85% of the amount allocated for the bet on this market in the prematch;
- follow the game in Live mode;
- when the favorite scores, the odds for a draw rises to 6.00-11.00;
- we put the remaining 15-20% of the amount on a draw.
Whichever of the two outcomes happens, we will be in the black. This is the so-called fork, arbitrage situation. But the strategy is not a win-win, because there are two dangers:
- teams will not score goals in the match - there simply will not be a chance to make a second bet, so it is important to find matches where the favorite is set to win;
- the first goal will be scored by the underdog, which will increase the coefficient not to 6.00, but somewhere up to 4.00-4.50. This is not enough for a surebet, but we still bet the remaining amount - to hedge and minimize the loss.
This strategy can be used without making the first bet in the prematch. You need to wait for the start of the game and give the teams 15-20 minutes to play. If no goals are scored during this time, the coefficient for “12” will increase by about 0.05-0.15.
This will allow using games where the corresponding quotes in the prematch are 1.15-1.20. If a goal is scored at the beginning of the first half, the selected match will have to be abandoned.
Forks in sports betting: Arbitrage betting. What is an arb in sports betting: how this strategy works for bookmakers.
An example of using this strategy: the match of the seventh round of the Higher League of Belarus between Belshina and Dynamo Brest, held on May 3, 2020. The bet was made like this:
- in the prematch for “12” at the odds of 1.30 - 800 rubles;
- the hosts scored an own goal in the 12th minute, which raised the odds for a draw to 6.30;
- we put 200 rubles on it;
- the match ends with the score "0: 3";
- the bet played on the "12" market.
Total: 800 x 1.30 = 1040 - payment. The net winnings were 40 rubles. If the rivals dispersed in peace, the payout would be 200 x 6.30 = 1260, and the net profit would be 260 rubles.
The disadvantage of this strategy is small wins if one of the opponents wins. This requires a particularly careful selection of events, because if the bet loses, it will negate numerous previous visits.
Any strategy for a draw carries a lot of risk. But they are interesting as mathematical models and as an opportunity for a player to show analytical skill of a forecaster.
Check out some of our Best Betting Spreadsheet - Analysis football. They will provide you with detailed analysis of each match with high visibility of the results in each match.