Baseball betting strategy: theory for handicap and totals betting in MLB and other leagues
Baseball betting strategies are virtually unknown in Russia. This sport is unpopular with us, but it is very convenient to bet on baseball: championships are held in Europe, Asia and America. In this article, we will analyze the features of the analysis and strategy of playing in the main league - MLB.
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Types of baseball bets in bookmakers
Basic types of baseball bets offered in the bookmaker's list:
- to win one of the teams in a match or a separate inning;
- different types of totals: general, individual, for the game as a whole or by innings;
- handicap on points.
In the pre-match list of the bookmaker, bets on the outcome, handicap and total in baseball are given not only for the game or the first inning. The period of the first five innings is distinguished separately.
It is considered the key - the strategy of betting on baseball by handicaps can be used only in this segment of the match.
It is convenient to place bets on baseball live. All matches are played with numerous breaks, preparation for serving, time-outs.
Baseball Betting: Features of Pre-Match Analysis
The main factors influencing the outcome and performance in this sport.
- Pitcher uniform. The stronger the pitcher in the team, the more chances it has to win. The best player in this position is most often released in the first inning. Five innings is the standard "must-have" star pitcher in MLB.
- Series of victories and defeats. Consider the current form of the two teams. Baseball often has a long streak of wins or losses.
- Features of the stadium. The main differences are in the size of the pitches, as well as in the windy environment. The Boston Red Sox, Colorado, New York Mets and New York Yankees have the windiest home stadiums, while the San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Tampa -Bay Race "- windless. The stronger the wind at the stadium, the more likely a high total is.
- Weather. Here, the strength of the wind, the humidity of the air, the probability of precipitation, etc. are important.
- Team factors - tournament motivation, absence of injured players, change of coach, etc.
Inning Draw Strategy
One of the common betting strategies is to bet on a draw in the inning. The following principles work here:
- most innings end in a draw;
- bookmakers give low odds for a draw - 1.50-1.70, rarely reaches 1.90;
Calculate the amount of each next bet using the formula :
(amount of the first bet + amount of losses) / (odds - 1) .
Any betting catch-up is dangerous. But baseball is rarely played without a draw for more than four innings in a row.
Take for example the MLB Preseason Tour on March 12, 2020:
- 10 games were played in total;
- in two of them there was a triple series of innings without a draw;
- in seven - double series;
- In only one match between the Tampa Bay Races and the Philadelphia Phillies, a draw-free streak lasted up to five innings, after which there was again a 0-0 draw.
Interestingly, in championships below the class, for example, in the Asian championships, the odds for drawn innings are higher - often reaching 2.05.
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Baseball strategy betting on total under
The strategy also works on the catch-up principle. Bet not on a draw, but on TM 0.5 in each next inning until the first run. Odds 1.50-1.70. These two systems are not much different, because most of the draw periods end with a score of 0: 0.
Outsider and favorites betting
In betting on outsiders and favorites, a baseball strategy is used - a handicap on points with an increase to a coefficient of 1.80-2.20. It is not uncommon for Major League Baseball matches or the first five innings to end by one point. Here we bet on baseball according to the following principles:
- select matches where the outside team plays away;
- we analyze the statistics of personal meetings of opponents at a given stadium;
- we give the favorite a head start from (-1.5) to (-3.5), if the home win coefficient is below 1.80.
You can also play on the opposite principle: take a positive handicap on an anerdog playing at home. It is important that the hosts are highly motivated and have no problems with the form of the main pitcher.
Bet example: New York Mats vs. St. Louis Cardinals match on March 11, 2020. The odds for the home win were 1.60. But the handicap (-2.5) went for 2.20. The match ended with a score of 7-3, that is, the F1 (-2.5) bet passed.
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Baseball Betting Financial Strategy
In baseball betting, the strategies shown above are not guaranteed to win. Therefore, be sure to follow the principles of financial management:
- choose a financial strategy: flat, fixed interest, Kelly criterion, etc .;
- stick to the size of the rates according to the chosen system;
- make sure that the bet amount does not exceed 10-15% of the total bank;
- do not bet around the clock on all games in different championships - choose one championship and understand its specifics.
Any systems are effective only with a competent analysis of matches, adherence to financial strategy and a share of luck at a distance. For baseball betting, the most detailed statistics are about the MLB league. Learn it and test your skills in a test mode before playing for real money.
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