Building a dropping odds strategy
Dropping odds in sports betting
Dropping odds represent a significant increase in the total amount of bets on a certain event associated with the change of odds on the deal. In other words, the odds drop when a lot more money is wagered on one of the outcomes. Bookmakers are forced to cut the odds on rather popular picks to mitigate their own risks.
Let’s check out the real dropping odds on the quarter finals of the UEFA Champions League 2020/2021, Manchester City FC vs Borussia Dortmund FC. The original odds for the home team to win are 1.75. However, the odds immediately before the game are around 1.3 – 1.37. The reason is obvious: much more money was wagered on the win of Manchester City than was wagered on Borussia Dortmund.
Other causes for odds movement
- injury or disqualification of a leading player;
- a change of coach;
- sudden-onset issues within a team;
- head-coach decision to put reserve team in;
- the whole team got sick
Although, the odds may also move due to some common causes:
- ban of fans visiting a match;
- unusual weather conditions for one of the parties;
- the venue of the match is altered
Dropping odds types
This type is primarily associated with match fixing (when non-sports events take place). However, bookies have already mastered the skill of reacting quickly to such developments. They just close the line on time and void the bets.
Deliberate dropping odds may also relate to fair play. For example, when truly substantive information that may influence the potential outcome of the match is leaked. Bookmakers usually become aware of such news really quickly, and can well cut the odds in advance.
Surebets also affect deliberate odds as gamblers are massively betting on particular outcomes.
A spontaneous nature of the odds occurs when most gamblers are certain about one particular outcome. It frequently happens with the most popular competitions (the above mentioned fixture between Man City and Borussia Dortmund is an excellent example).
Spontaneous odds feature multiple bets, and values of such deals are not necessarily considerable. The odds drop due to an abundance of deals made. In the betting world this is also called public bet.
Movement by the geo feature may take place when gamblers are betting on their national team or some famous local club. This is best reflected in football when national or European competitions are held.
Applying dropping odds in sports betting
Two key strategies are usually applied to dropping odds:
- bets on dropping odds;
- bets against dropping odds
Each strategy obviously has its pros and cons that we’re going to elaborate on further.
Betting against dropping odds
The strategy aims at waiting for peak odds to make a wager. The thing is that a possibility to win always remains, and potential profit is way higher though. One can bet on a favorite as well as on an outsider.
Betting the outsider
When in the match between the outsider and the favorite the odds drop in favour of the favorite, it makes sense to gamble on positive handicap between the range of 1.7 – 1.9 for the outsider team to win.
E.g.: Man City vs Borussia; the odds on handicap (+2) go up from 1.19 to 1.51 for the win of team Man City. The potential profit when betting $100 has increased from $19 to $51, but the success rate remains the same.
Betting the favorite
If the odds for the outsider are dropping badly, it’s better to bet on the favorite team to win. Preferably wait till the odds go up to at least 1.5.
E.g.: Juventus vs Fiorentina; the odds on the win go up from 1.25 to 1.5 for team Juventus. The potential profit when betting $100 has grown from $25 to $50.
Betting TO (2.5) in football
It’s crucial to wager TO at the very beginning of the match, and the competition should fall within the certain criteria:
- both teams score over 1.5 goals per match on average;
- each team's win is estimated at no less than 2.5-3.0
E.g.: Man City vs Borussia; the odds on TO 2.5 are at the range of 1.86 when the betting line opens. When the odds drop, the range moves down to 1.61. If the gambler makes a bet before the odds drop, the potential profit will be higher by $25.
Betting TU (2.5) in football
The best possible time to wager TU is before the line is closed, but only under the following conditions:
- the odds are under 2.0 for the win of one of the teams;
- a tie is fine by one of the teams
E.g.: Juventus vs Fiorentina; the original odds on TU 2.5 are 2.2. When the odds on TO 2.5 drop, the prices for the event will increas to 2.6. The obvious benefit here is $40 when betting $100.
Betting dropping odds can be thrilling and rather exciting. But given the fact that all these strategies have little effect, they don’t usually guarantee a 100% profit even in the long run, you can check odds and statistics for the teams with betting spreadsheet that we provide on excelbetting.com