How to guess the outcome of a match: 4 secrets

How to guess the outcome of a match: 4 secrets

Many bettors, especially beginners, often ask themselves the question: how to guess the outcome of a football match? Or worse: how to predict the outcome of a soccer match? To be honest, we don't know. Because all these fortune-telling about the outcome of a football match is sheer absurdity.

But we are fluent in other magic, built on calculations and analytics. You will see how it works and understand: you don't need to look into a glass ball to make winning bets and make money over a long distance. You need to look at the xG and Excel tables. Go.

What factors need to be considered in order to determine the winner of a match?

Almost all resources on the Internet devoted to this topic are advised to take into account the weather, injuries of athletes, disqualification, change of coach, even funding of a club / team, and so on. Of course, we cannot completely exclude the influence of these factors. They do have some kind of indirect effect. But not strong enough to build the entire betting strategy on them.

How, then, to determine the winner and what factors to rely on? First, you need to learn how to use the excel betting tables . By the way, they are on this site. This is the foundation on which you can build a successful betting career in the future.

Remember that xG on a tie shows how well a team is playing when the score is tied. For strong teams, this indicator is always high.

How to determine the real strength of teams?

You can see the strength of the teams in a tie by the indicators of the excel betting tables, namely in the xG / xGA 0-0 columns. These numbers show the ratio of goals scored to goals conceded in xG only when the score is zero. The indicator in the xG / xGA draw last 5 matches column shows the same ratio, only for the last 5 matches.

You can see with illustrative examples how to use these excel betting data in this video . Be sure to take a look.

Practical application of xG data to determine the outcome of a match

The xG data from the above columns allows you to find underrated teams that are actually much stronger than the leaderboards show. Knowing this, for such teams it is possible to find opponents whose real level in xG is much lower than what the tournament tables show.

As you can see, the use of xG football statistics enables the bettor to find teams with hidden potential.

Team reaction to win and loss

When choosing a bet on the winner of the match, one should take into account not only xG in case of a draw, but also the team's reaction to goals scored and conceded during the match. Use the xG / xGA + 1 and xG / xGA-1 speakers to see how dynamics and gameplay change. The first shows the ratio of goals scored and conceded by xG, if the team wins. The second column shows the ratio of goals scored to goals conceded if the team loses by one goal.

Why is this information important? Because some teams can show excellent xG performance in a draw, but as soon as they start to lead the score, they immediately become defensive. In this case, xG at +1 drops sharply, because the team ceases to create dangerous moments at the opponent's goal.

In such situations, by the way, pay attention to the play of the opposing team when it starts to lose.

How does field factor and impact severity affect the outcome of a match?

In fact, the home field factor is an important criterion for judging the winner of a match. To determine its impact, you need to consider the game at home (for one team) and away (for the other). This is also shown by the excel betting.

The average impact severity is another important indicator. It is shown in the xG / Sh and xGA / Sh columns. The first shows the average number of expected goals scored per hit, and the second shows the average number of expected conceded hits. These data give the bettor the opportunity to assess the average severity of one shot, which the team created at the opponent's goal, and the average severity of the moment (at their goal), created by the opponent.

How does xG data help determine the winner of a match?

All these xG indicators allow the bettor to:

  • easy to find underappreciated teams;

  • find teams that are overestimated by the player pool;

  • find bets with positive ROI.

And if you want to become even cooler, then you need to learn how to correctly use 3 more tools:

  • advanced Monte Carlo generator;

  • Excel tables ;

With such a set of tools in your arsenal, you can not only earn consistently on bets, but literally become a millionaire. The main thing is a competent approach, a well-thought-out strategy and a desire to learn.

We describe Excel tables and variance in rates in detail and with illustrative examples in the 8th issue of "Triumphant". Follow the link and start absorbing invaluable information right now.

Excel Betting Software  - Best prediction results - Best winnings

We recommend that you use betting software that analyzes matches with Excel because it is fast, convenient and easy, and you have complete freedom of action as well as various filters according to which to determine the best betting options for you.

You can check out some of our best betting software. They will provide you with detailed analysis of each match with high visibility of the results in each match.